Sunday, April 18, 2010

Thoughts on the recent Kyrgyzstan coup/revolution

-Bakiev has low approval ratings and was not elected
-Financial inflation and privatization of electricity contribute to above
-US and RUSSIA both have strategic bases in Kyrgyzstan
-US need the base to transport troops to Afghanistan

-Since old regime allowed for US to continue operation their base and new regime gave no conclusive answer, it could be the case that US hopes for the coup to fail
-Russia has openly supported the coup leader, so it might be the case that they are giving Russia benefits. A new base perhaps?
-The majority of the people support the coup leader, complicating the situation for US, who always try to support the democratically elected government
-Since coup is currently claiming to be government, we might see US trying to negotiate with their leader
-It is unlikely that US will give any direct help to the old regime because of point mentioned two bullets above.

-New government vow to persecute ex-president
-Transportation of US troops through Kyrgyzstan has stopped
-Russia and China feel that Kyrgyzstan will stabilize very soon. Are they merely watching or are they taking action to ensure this happens?
-Various sources speculate Kyrgyzstan will form parliamentary government.

-US will definitely side with new government and are willing to gain trust by any means now since old one is obsolete . Probably won't say it publicly, but that's beside the point.
-The battle is now b/w US and Russia to see who can win the favours of the new govn't
-Russia seem to want to take action indirectly to win its stay or even have US expelled from Kyrgyzstan
-US will back new government and encourage them to fully democratize.

Well, let's see how many of these happened to be true.

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